Global Warming in a Nutshell

Last week the 29th anniversary of James Hansen’s historic appearance before the U.S. Senate’s Committee on Health & Natural Resources passed by virtually unnoticed.  Hansen, a climate scientist with NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, testified back on June 23, 1988, that “Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

Hansen added, ''It is already happening now.’’

The year of Hansen’s testimony—1988—was warmer at the time than any other year in the global temperature records, which began in 1880.  Now, it doesn’t even make the top ten.  So far our new century has seen 16 of the top 17 warmest years ever recorded, with each of the last three years setting a new all-time record.  That is not a natural progression.

For 29 years now we have been officially on notice that global warming is taking place and poses serious threats to life as we know it.  And for 29 years, as global temperatures have climbed, we have been unable to muster a serious response.

The core science linking the greenhouse effect and global warming can be summed up in three logical steps:

• Carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases trap heat by absorbing infrared radiation.
• The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is steadily increasing, so more and more heat is being trapped, thus warming the planet.
• Human production of carbon dioxide is almost entirely responsible for the increased carbon dioxide levels, and hence for much of the warming.

All three of these steps are easily verifiable.  They are based on settled physics and indisputable measurements.

When air sampling began at the remote Pacific island of Mauna Loa, back in 1958, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at a level of 280 parts per million (ppm).  This year the CO₂ level reached 410 ppm.  That is a 48% increase of heat-trapping CO₂ in less than 60 years, and the level is still climbing.  Look no further for a reason the world is heating up.

An instrument called a mass spectrometer is used to measure the CO₂ and other gases in the air samples from Mauna Loa and other centers around the globe.  Since CO₂ emitted by the burning of fossil fuels lacks a carbon isotope called C14, the mass spectrometer can tell us how much of the CO₂ being added to the atmosphere is from human burning of fossil fuels.   The answer is: virtually all of it.  

Claims that we don’t know whether human use of fossil fuels is responsible for global warming are false.  The science demonstrating that they are false has been known for years.  As James Powell has written, “Unlike people, isotopes do not lie.”

Most people now understand that we need to transition away from CO₂-producing fossil fuels and adopt clean, renewable forms of energy that don’t load the atmosphere with more greenhouse gases.  What they may not be aware of is how quickly we need to cut greenhouse gases, and how deep those cuts must be.

Here’s the problem.  The ocean, plants on land, and other carbon absorbers can only take up about half of the CO₂ humans are currently producing each year.  The other half goes into the atmosphere, where different portions last for differing amounts of time.  The brutal, seldom-discussed reality is that twenty percent or more of the CO₂ humans produce annually will remain in the atmosphere for tens of thousands of years.  That 20% annual addition, on a human scale, is close to permanent.

So to stabilize CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, most of the goals and timelines being set by governments at all levels don’t come close to doing the job.  Even ambitious-sounding goals actually result in dumping more and more gas into the atmosphere, where a good deal of it will remain long term.  

The numbers are simple and straightforward.  If we cut CO₂ emissions by 20%?  Then 30% will still go into the atmosphere, CO₂ levels will keep on climbing, and more long-term warming will be locked in.  Cut emissions by 40%?  Then 10% will still worsen the problem.  Every year we don’t cut emissions to 50% of current levels, we’re making things worse.  Much worse.

In short, the minimum realistic goal is to cut CO₂ emissions by 50%, and the realistic timeline is as soon as humanly possible.  Then we can taper down toward zero emissions.  We can’t afford to settle for cuts that are easily palatable.  Our realism should be rooted in physical reality, the real-life consequences of continued greenhouse buildup.  The deadly heat waves, drying out of soils, increased flooding, more violent storms, mass migrations of plant and animal species, melting of ice caps and glaciers, and all the rest of it.

What we think of as “other issues” keep pressing themselves on us.  Health care.  Terrorism.  Poverty.  Immigration.  Hunger.  

The fact is, global warming will worsen every one of these dramatically, on a planetary scale, and will do irreparable harm in many other ways.  Global warming is the biggest, most comprehensive threat the world faces.  Dealing with it must become the number one priority on our political agenda. 

© Tony Russell, 2017

Dishonorable

I’m sitting in front of my computer reading part of an interview last Thursday with Scott Pruitt, the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency.  The article includes a photo of Pruitt, with a placard in front of him reading “Hon. E. Scott Pruitt.”

Before being named to the EPA post, Pruitt was the Attorney General of Oklahoma.  In that position, one of his main accomplishments was bringing fossil fuel corporations and lobbying groups into the Republican Attorneys General Association. He also acted as a conduit for Devon Energy, Oklahoma’s largest oil and gas firm, when he sent a letter to the EPA accusing it of federal overreach.  His contribution was the signature; attorneys for Devon Energy actually wrote the letter.

The Republican AG group welcomed its fossil fuel funders by forming a nonprofit called the “Rule of Law Defense Fund.”   The fund had the deliberately vague purpose of pursuing “issues relevant to the nation’s Republican attorneys general.”  Pruitt is a board member.  The organization has received at least $175,000 from the Koch brothers’ Freedom Partners super PAC.

That is the background for Pruitt’s astonishing statement in his interview: “… no, I would not agree that [carbon dioxide is] a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.  ... we don’t know that yet  ... we need to continue debate and continue the review and the analysis."

This is a familiar industry line.  First with the tobacco industry, now with the fossil fuel industry.  “We don’t know that cigarettes cause cancer.”  “We don’t know that burning oil and gas and coal causes global warming.”  “The science is uncertain.”  “We need further studies.”  Et cetera.  What is so sickening is hearing these words from the head of the EPA.

Debate, review, analyze ....  What they really stand for is delay, delay, delay.  The longer an industry fights off action, whether it be on smoking or climate change, the longer the money rolls in… and the more people die from lung cancer or unprecedented flooding or heat stroke or climate-driven drought.

We do know that humans' burning of fossil fuel is driving our current global warming, and have known it with certainty for decades.  There are few things more firmly established in modern science than the primary role of human-generated carbon dioxide in causing the planetary warming we’re experiencing.  Pruitt might as well have claimed that there is no proof that Earth is round, that we need to keep debating and reviewing and analyzing that issue.  

But there’s no money in pushing a flat Earth agenda; there’s plenty of money available for people like Pruitt, who will swap their integrity for a few lies about climate change (and the high positions and salaries that reward their willingness to spread those lies in front of cameras).  

What are the consequences of lies about global warming?

Rising sea levels moving steadily inward on beaches and coastal plains around the world.  More intense, deadly heat waves that have already killed thousands.  The death of coral reefs and bleaching of many more, even in the most remote, pristine areas of the planet.  Ever larger and more intense forest fires, thousand-year floods, and mega-droughts.  The looming extinction of untold numbers of plant and animal species.

And that’s just a brief sample.  What Pruitt and this administration are furthering is death, loss, suffering, and destruction across a wide swath of the planet—while their supporters cheer on the madness.

This is Esau’s trading of his birthright for a mess of pottage that long since turned foul and rotten.  I’m thinking again of that placard in the photo of Pruitt.  We use the title “the Honorable” so routinely.  So cheaply.  Few things could be more dishonorable, and more despicable, than carrying lies for such a morally indefensible cause.  

© Tony Russell, 2017

"It Really Is Not a Big Deal"

Photo by Eugen Nosko
from Wkimedia Commons

Four of us got there early for choir practice--Shirley, Mabel, Serena, and myself--and while we were waiting we fell to griping about our husbands, something that’s been known to happen when a group of women get together.

“I could just strangle Andy,” Shirley said.  “His blood pressure keeps going up and up.  It was 165 over something last month, and the doctor told him he really needed to lose weight, change his diet, and get some exercise.  I’m scared to death he’s going to have a heart attack.  But Andy just shrugs it off.  He says your blood pressure is either going up or down at any point in time, so it's really not a big deal.”

“Huh,” said Mable.  “You know what?  Rodney told me almost exactly the same thing when I got after him about his weight.  He waved it off.  Claimed your weight is always either going up or down at any point in time, so it really isn’t a big deal.  When I mentioned that his only seems to go one direction--up--he just repeated himself and heaped some more mashed potatoes and gravy on his plate.”

“Gee, that’s funny,” said Serena.  “Lou’s cholesterol has climbed up over 240, and our doctor wanted to put him on some medication and an exercise program.  But Lou brushed him off.  He said your cholesterol is always going either up or down, so it’s not really that big a deal.  I told Lou that when it gets up as high as his is, it’s definitely a big deal, but he just sat there watching that TV.  I’m not sure he even heard me.”  

“Hmm.  You know what?  I’ve been getting that same excuse from Ace,” I volunteered.  “He’s been dragging around, having headaches, and losing weight, but he won’t do anything about it.  His blood sugar level was 190 when we checked it yesterday.  I’m afraid he’s going to have foot problems or go blind if he doesn’t start taking care of himself, but he just pretends nothing's wrong.  Where are they getting all this nonsense?”

“I came right out and asked Lou,” said Donna, “He’s been following the presidential primaries really closely.  And it turns out that when Dr. Carson gets asked about global warming--the way the planet keeps getting hotter and hotter--he just says....”

I guess the light went on for all of us simultaneously.  Before she could finish her sentence, we all chimed in:  "... the temperature's either going up or down at any point in time, so it really is not a big deal."

© Tony Russell, 2016

Speaking Power to Truth

“What’s the matter, Ace?  You’ve been moping around all evening.”

“Sorry, Patty.  It’s that column on global warming by George Will we ran in the paper a while back.  It’s become a real headache.”

“You mean the one that pooh-poohed the idea that global warming was taking place, and mentioned different scientific studies that backed up his opinion?”

“Yeah, that’s the one.  Turns out that a lot of his facts were cherry-picked, misrepresented, or just plain wrong.  Some of the scientists he cited have gone public with letters saying their conclusions are exactly the opposite of what he’s attributed to them.  The paper has been swamped with letters complaining about the column, asking how something filled with so many errors could get by our fact-checkers.”

“What’s the problem?  Now that the errors have been pointed out, Will can just apologize and issue a retraction.”

“Well, actually there are two problems.  Will didn’t admit to any of the errors or misrepresentations.  Instead of apologizing, he wrote a second column even worse than the first, defending himself.  And since Bob Spinner appointed me the paper’s ombudsman, I have to explain to all our readers how Will’s column made it through our rigorous fact-check process untouched.”

“Well, that’s a good question, isn’t it?  How did that happen?”

“I checked with our checkers.  They just sat there and laughed at the idea that we would question a George Will column.  He’s a big name, he’s rich, he’s a pal of the powerful, and the last time somebody called him on his facts he threw a fit.  If you question anything he says, FOX and talk-radio come swarming after you like yellow-jackets around the barbecue at a picnic in the park.”

“So George Will is exempt from fact-checks?”

“In theory, no; in practice, yes.  It’s that ‘too-big-to-fail’ syndrome.  It’s cropping up everywhere.”

“I think I get it.  As the paper’s ombudsman, you’re stuck.  Your job is to tell the truth, which is that the paper didn’t apply the same standards to him that it does to everybody else.  But that’s obviously not something the paper will let you write while they still sign your paycheck.  So you can speak truth to power, and lose your job, or speak power to truth, and lose your self-respect.”

“That’s about it,” I agreed.

“So what are you going to do?  Are we still going to be able to make house payments and put food on the table?”

[Hands her a sheet of paper, looking uncomfortable.]  “This is what I wrote.”

[Hastily reads it over.]  “You’ve defended the process, selecting only one or two of the errors and offering semi-plausible excuses for how they could have slipped through, while ignoring the rest.”  [Both sigh.]  “Well, I guess we live to eat another day.  How do you feel about it?”

“Like a girl in a too-small bikini.  It reveals more about me than I’d like for the public to see.”

© Tony Russell, 2013

No 'Normal' Anymore

Patty had sent me out to weed the flower bed by our driveway, and I was taking a hard pull on a cold one while I tried to decide whether yet another green thing was a flower or a weed.  Fortunately, my neighbor Gordon came by, walking his Doberman “Hercules,” and when Hercules sprayed the plant, I decided it was best left where it was.

“Looks as if everything is shooting up,” said Gordon, gawking at the teeming mass of plant life.  “Guess that’s what you get with longer growing seasons and the fertilizing effect of all that CO₂.  Global warming’s not all that bad.”

“Probably not,” I agreed, “except maybe for the rising oceans and the bigger forest fires and longer droughts and growing deserts and disappearing glaciers and dying coral reefs and plants facing extinction.  Things like that.  But I thought you didn’t believe in global warming?”

“I’ve gotta admit I used to be a climate change skeptic,” he said, nodding his head.  

“What changed your mind?” I asked, curious.  “You were pretty adamant about it, I remember.  Was it all those warnings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?  The record high ocean temperatures?  The ice cores that showed the planet is the hottest it’s been in 12,000 years?  The warning last week that melting permafrost could set off a runaway temperature climb?”

“Nah, I don’t pay attention to any of that stuff,” he said.  “I still think those scientists are in cahoots with liberal politicians in waging a war on the coal industry.”

“Yeah?” I said.  “What do you suppose is in it for them?”

“Who knows?” he said.  “Maybe they all have investments in solar panels or wind farms.”

“Well, if you don’t trust the IPCC, and you don’t trust the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and you don’t trust the politicians, and you don’t trust the 97% of climatologists who say that this global warming is real and caused by humans, what exactly was it that changed your mind?” I asked.

“God,” he said.

“God?”

“God.  My sister lives in Oklahoma.  Their two Senators, Jim Inhofe and Tom Coburn, are two of the biggest deniers of climate change in the country.  In 2011, Oklahoma had their all-time low temperature at 31 degrees below zero, their biggest 24-hour snowfall at 27 inches, 93 tornadoes in the month of May, a foot of rain in a single day in June, and then the western part of the state had an 11-month drought that was the driest ever recorded in the state.  In 2012, they had 64 temperature records broken in July--including 113 degrees at Chandler.  This year, of course, a huge tornado hit Moore in May and flattened it, killing 24 people.”

“And you think..?”

“God’s doing his darnedest to get people’s attention.  You can think Al Gore is a pompous jackass all you want--and I do--, but God’s sending a message.  We’re desecrating God’s green Earth, and He’s seen enough.  Enough pillaging, enough poisoning, enough polluting.  I just don’t know if Inhofe and Coburn and their kind are opening their heavenly mail.”

“But that’s Oklahoma,” I ventured cautiously.  “They have crazy weather there anyway.”

“Not that crazy,” he said.  “Besides, it’s everywhere.  Don’t you pay attention to what goes on around you?”

“What do you mean?”

“Just open your eyes!” he said.  “Read the signs!  Spring is coming three weeks sooner here than it did forty years ago, and fall weather comes later.  Tree species on the Blue Ridge Parkway and in Shenandoah National Park are migrating northward.  We had a tornado rip through town in June of 2010, an ‘extreme weather pattern’ with dangerous winds and thunderstorms blowing down trees and damaging houses in June of 2012, a deadly derecho in July of 2012, and a “Frankenstorm” with high winds and heavy rains in October of 2012.  This year we’ve had the ugliest, most humid first half of July I can remember, and it rained nearly every day.  It was like living in the tropics at the start of rainy season.  Now the second half of July it’s been cool and pleasant, as if we’re heading into autumn.  It’s spooky.  It’s like there’s no ‘normal’ anymore.”

“You sound like a real convert,” I said.

“Born again again,” he agreed, as Hercules began jerking him down the street.

© Tony Russell, 2013